We wanted to pass along some background info and recent polling data for tomorrow’s special election for Ohio’s 12th Congressional District.
Tomorrow’s vote is to elect a member to finish the unexpired term of Congressman Pat Tiberi (R), who resigned last year to run the Ohio Business Roundtable. We have covered this race previously and it is being closely watched nationally. The OH-12 special election is the last Congressional special election nationally before the November general election. Democrats have generally performed well in other special elections since President Trump took office and this race affords them one more chance to drive momentum into November. Republicans are hoping to stop the ‘blue wave’ that has been driving voter turnout and protect their Congressional majorities. The loss of GOP majorities in either chamber of the US Congress would be a significant blow to President Trump’s agenda.
The 12th Congressional District has a significant population center in northern Franklin County and Delaware County; it encompasses several wealthy Columbus suburbs. The district extends northward along I-71 to Mansfield and eastward along I-70 to Zanesville—the 12th Congressional District covers portions of Franklin, Marion, Richland, and Muskingum Counties and all of Morrow, Delaware, and Licking Counties. It is a diverse district with many rural and Appalachian communities along with affluent Columbus suburbs. Trump carried the 12th District in 2016, though both Congressman Tiberi and US Senator Rob Portman outperformed him in the district. The 12th District has been under Republican control since 1982, when John Kasich won the seat. Until recently, the seat was considered a safe Republican seat; however the retirement of Tiberi and increasing anti-Trump sentiment have afforded Democrats a chance to pick-up the 12th.
State Senator Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville) won a crowded primary in May to be the Republican nominee. Balderson resides in the eastern portion of the 12th Congressional District and only Licking and Muskingum Counties are in his State Senate District. Balderson did defeat several opponents from Delaware and Franklin Counties despite this geographic disadvantage. House Speaker Paul Ryan, Vice President Mike Pence, and President Donald Trump have all held events for Balderson in the 12th District; he also picked up the endorsement of Ohio Governor John Kasich and former Congressman Pat Tiberi. This is intriguing given that both Kasich and Tiberi did not support President Trump in 2016. Meanwhile, Democrats have rallied around Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor, who also won a contested primary. O’Connor is relatively new to politics and has vocally criticized the leadership of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. He was endorsed by the Columbus Dispatch over Balderson earlier this year.
Early polls gave Balderson a strong advantage, however O’Connor has closed the gap in recent weeks. Real Clear Politics shows Balderson has a composite spread of +3.7%, which is within the margin of error for most polls. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a popular Congressional election newsletter, has downgraded the 12th District from ‘likely R’ to ‘toss-up’. Here is a snapshot of recent polls for the 12th District special election—
|
Poll |
Date |
Margin |
Balderson (R) |
O’Connor |
|
Emerson |
8/2 – 8/4 |
5% |
46% |
47% |
|
Monmouth |
7/26 – 7/31 |
4.8% |
46% |
45% |
|
JMC Analytics |
6/13 – 6/16 |
4.4% |
46% |
35% |
|
Monmouth |
6/7 – 6/10 |
5.1% |
48% |
39% |
Generally, Balderson’s numbers have stayed static while O’Connor has slowly progressed. In national polls, Democrats have a +7% advantage in a generic matchup; this has erased much of the partisan advantage in the 12th Congressional District. Tiberi was a popular incumbent who held the seat for nearly two decades and often won by double-digits; many voters in the 12th District have not seen Balderson’s name on the ballot until this year. Tomorrow’s special election will be discussed extensively no matter who wins. For Democrats, its another chance to win a Congressional seat in a district carried by Trump in 2016; for Republicans its a final chance to halt Democratic momentum going into November. Given that Trump made a personal appearance in the district this past weekend, a loss would be a personal embarrassment and could lead to more Republicans distancing themselves from the President over the next few months.
No matter who wins tomorrow, both Balderson and O’Connor will be on the ballot again in November seeking a new term for 2019. A loss tomorrow does not necessarily mean that a candidate can’t succeed in November. However, given the significant amount of party resources expended in the special election race, the losing candidate will be hard-pressed to justify continued efforts between now and November.
If you have any questions or would like more info regarding the 12th District please reach out to OABA or Belinda Jones.